Friday, September 6, 2013

Predict the New York City Election via private contributions includes simple probability




Here's a very simple model that seems to work.  Predict the candidate that receives the most private contributions as the winner.  Also the probability is the top receiver of private contributions divided by the total of the contributions for that given election.


Predicted Winner
BP BK Candidate: #N/A - Adams, Eric L570616candidateBP BK Candidate
BP BK Candidate: #N/A - Scissura, Carlo A127605candidateBP BK Candidate
BP BK Candidate: #N/A - Gangemi, John F29256candidateBP BK Candidate
probability: 0.784376688198





Predicted Winner
BP BX Candidate: #N/A - Diaz Jr., Ruben1188752candidateBP BX Candidate
BP BX Candidate: #N/A - Escoffery-Bey, Mark42391candidateBP BX Candidate
probability: 0.965567769138





Predicted Winner
BP MN Candidate: #N/A - Menin, Julie1031672candidateBP MN Candidate
BP MN Candidate: #N/A - Lappin, Jessica S767188candidateBP MN Candidate
BP MN Candidate: #N/A - Jackson, Robert462195candidateBP MN Candidate
BP MN Candidate: #N/A - Brewer, Gale A433198candidateBP MN Candidate
BP MN Candidate: #N/A - Georges, Smith917candidateBP MN Candidate
BP MN Candidate: #N/A - Casavis, David B100candidateBP MN Candidate
probability: 0.38277129935





Predicted Winner
BP QN Candidate: #N/A - Vallone, Jr., Peter F1069263candidateBP QN Candidate
BP QN Candidate: #N/A - Katz, Melinda779839candidateBP QN Candidate
BP QN Candidate: #N/A - Pheffer, Audrey I346899candidateBP QN Candidate
BP QN Candidate: #N/A - Peralta, Jose301316candidateBP QN Candidate
BP QN Candidate: #N/A - Comrie, Leroy G167981candidateBP QN Candidate
BP QN Candidate: #N/A - Grodenchik, Barry151304candidateBP QN Candidate
BP QN Candidate: #N/A - Avella, Tony73817candidateBP QN Candidate
BP QN Candidate: #N/A - Arcabascio, Aurelio A4510candidateBP QN Candidate
BP QN Candidate: #N/A - Brown, Everly D1701candidateBP QN Candidate
probability: 0.36914034585





Predicted Winner
BP SI Candidate: #N/A - Oddo, James S354364candidateBP SI Candidate
BP SI Candidate: #N/A - Luthmann, Richard12090candidateBP SI Candidate
BP SI Candidate: #N/A - Liedy Jr, Louis L9030candidateBP SI Candidate
probability: 0.943752596649





Predicted Winner
CD 01 Candidate: #N/A - Chin, Margaret S148230candidateCD 01 Candidate
CD 01 Candidate: #N/A - Rajkumar, Jenifer79816candidateCD 01 Candidate
probability: 0.650000438508





Predicted Winner
CD 02 Candidate: #N/A - Mendez, Rosie84326candidateCD 02 Candidate
CD 02 Candidate: #N/A - Del Rio, Richard31838candidateCD 02 Candidate
probability: 0.725921972384





Predicted Winner
CD 03 Candidate: #N/A - Johnson, Corey D189901candidateCD 03 Candidate
CD 03 Candidate: #N/A - Kurland, Yetta143558candidateCD 03 Candidate
CD 03 Candidate: #N/A - Meadows, Alexander R29071candidateCD 03 Candidate
probability: 0.523821476843





Predicted Winner
CD 04 Candidate: #N/A - Garodnick, Daniel R735644candidateCD 04 Candidate
CD 04 Candidate: #N/A - Thompson, Mark P60785candidateCD 04 Candidate
probability: 0.923678067976





Predicted Winner
CD 05 Candidate: #N/A - Kellner, Micah Z156369candidateCD 05 Candidate
CD 05 Candidate: #N/A - Kallos, Benjamin J77853candidateCD 05 Candidate
CD 05 Candidate: #N/A - Hartzog, Edward A56264candidateCD 05 Candidate
CD 05 Candidate: #N/A - Minerva, Domenico G21509candidateCD 05 Candidate
CD 05 Candidate: #N/A - Garland, David P11425candidateCD 05 Candidate
probability: 0.483485869767





Predicted Winner
CD 06 Candidate: #N/A - Rosenthal, Helen K193921candidateCD 06 Candidate
CD 06 Candidate: #N/A - Biberaj, Ken141045candidateCD 06 Candidate
CD 06 Candidate: #N/A - Wymore, Mel133457candidateCD 06 Candidate
CD 06 Candidate: #N/A - Landis, Marc A129522candidateCD 06 Candidate
CD 06 Candidate: #N/A - Gotbaum, Noah E129289candidateCD 06 Candidate
CD 06 Candidate: #N/A - Cooper, Debra103719candidateCD 06 Candidate
probability: 0.233371803219





Predicted Winner
CD 07 Candidate: #N/A - Ramadan, Zead124292candidateCD 07 Candidate
CD 07 Candidate: #N/A - Levine, Mark D121320candidateCD 07 Candidate
CD 07 Candidate: #N/A - Johnson, Joyce S51678candidateCD 07 Candidate
CD 07 Candidate: #N/A - Otto, Mark T41505candidateCD 07 Candidate
CD 07 Candidate: #N/A - Tejada, Luis M37992candidateCD 07 Candidate
CD 07 Candidate: #N/A - Lantigua, Manuel28435candidateCD 07 Candidate
CD 07 Candidate: #N/A - Lopez-Pierre, Thomas9824candidateCD 07 Candidate
CD 07 Candidate: #N/A - Barksdale, Alicia D8723candidateCD 07 Candidate
CD 07 Candidate: #N/A - Sasscer-Burgos, David S7365candidateCD 07 Candidate
CD 07 Candidate: #N/A - Enoch, Brodie6027candidateCD 07 Candidate
CD 07 Candidate: #N/A - Washington, Monique3892candidateCD 07 Candidate
CD 07 Candidate: #N/A - Vargas, Ruben Dario3369candidateCD 07 Candidate
CD 07 Candidate: #N/A - Gonzalez, Christina E100candidateCD 07 Candidate
probability: 0.279608208368





Predicted Winner
CD 08 Candidate: #N/A - Mark-Viverito, Melissa128516candidateCD 08 Candidate
CD 08 Candidate: #N/A - Gardner, Sean P30503candidateCD 08 Candidate
CD 08 Candidate: #N/A - Santos, Edward N29369candidateCD 08 Candidate
CD 08 Candidate: #N/A - Cardona, Ralina M27460candidateCD 08 Candidate
CD 08 Candidate: #N/A - Guerrero, Ariel E13922candidateCD 08 Candidate
CD 08 Candidate: #N/A - Molina, Angel D9855candidateCD 08 Candidate
CD 08 Candidate: #N/A - Goodwin, Gwen6495candidateCD 08 Candidate
CD 08 Candidate: #N/A - Humphreys, Tamika L2201candidateCD 08 Candidate
probability: 0.517539797279





Predicted Winner
CD 09 Candidate: #N/A - Dickens, Inez E176263candidateCD 09 Candidate
CD 09 Candidate: #N/A - Morgan, Vincent S136812candidateCD 09 Candidate
probability: 0.563005669568





Predicted Winner
CD 10 Candidate: Manhattan; (Parts of Washington Heights, parts of Inwood) - Rodriguez, Ydanis A123724candidateCD 10 Candidate
CD 10 Candidate: Manhattan; (Parts of Washington Heights, parts of Inwood) - Pahaham, Cheryl A31174candidateCD 10 Candidate
CD 10 Candidate: Manhattan; (Parts of Washington Heights, parts of Inwood) - Estrella, Miguel9470candidateCD 10 Candidate
CD 10 Candidate: Manhattan; (Parts of Washington Heights, parts of Inwood) - Castellanos, Francesca M4132candidateCD 10 Candidate
probability: 0.734267062315





Predicted Winner
CD 11 Candidate: Bronx; Kingsbridge, Riverdale, Woodlawn, Norwood, parts of Bedford Park, Wakefield and Bronx Park East - Cohen, Andrew J95749candidateCD 11 Candidate
CD 11 Candidate: Bronx; Kingsbridge, Riverdale, Woodlawn, Norwood, parts of Bedford Park, Wakefield and Bronx Park East - Hoffnung, Ari M79066candidateCD 11 Candidate
CD 11 Candidate: Bronx; Kingsbridge, Riverdale, Woodlawn, Norwood, parts of Bedford Park, Wakefield and Bronx Park East - Stanton, Cliff I64187candidateCD 11 Candidate
CD 11 Candidate: Bronx; Kingsbridge, Riverdale, Woodlawn, Norwood, parts of Bedford Park, Wakefield and Bronx Park East - Keeling, Cheryl5615candidateCD 11 Candidate
probability: 0.391424144683





Predicted Winner
CD 12 Candidate: Bronx; Edenwald, Co-Op City, Wakefield, Williamsbridge, Baychester - King, Andrew L33850candidateCD 12 Candidate
CD 12 Candidate: Bronx; Edenwald, Co-Op City, Wakefield, Williamsbridge, Baychester - Oloruntoba (Toba), Adeyemi L7955candidateCD 12 Candidate
CD 12 Candidate: Bronx; Edenwald, Co-Op City, Wakefield, Williamsbridge, Baychester - Edie, Lenford6774candidateCD 12 Candidate
CD 12 Candidate: Bronx; Edenwald, Co-Op City, Wakefield, Williamsbridge, Baychester - Johnson, Pamela A5965candidateCD 12 Candidate
CD 12 Candidate: Bronx; Edenwald, Co-Op City, Wakefield, Williamsbridge, Baychester - Wright, Ryan D1265candidateCD 12 Candidate
CD 12 Candidate: Bronx; Edenwald, Co-Op City, Wakefield, Williamsbridge, Baychester - Ortiz, Steven A110candidateCD 12 Candidate
probability: 0.605339866593





Predicted Winner
CD 13 Candidate: Bronx; Pelham Parkway North and South, Pelham Bay, Country Club, City Island, Throggs Neck, Allerton, Morris Park - Vacca, James290688candidateCD 13 Candidate
probability: 1.0





Predicted Winner
CD 14 Candidate: Bronx; Fordham, Kingsbridge, Morris Heights, West Bronx - Cabrera, Fernando47611candidateCD 14 Candidate
CD 14 Candidate: Bronx; Fordham, Kingsbridge, Morris Heights, West Bronx - Vigueras, Jessica D3028candidateCD 14 Candidate
CD 14 Candidate: Bronx; Fordham, Kingsbridge, Morris Heights, West Bronx - Sanchez, Lynn100candidateCD 14 Candidate
probability: 0.938351169712





Predicted Winner
CD 15 Candidate: Bronx; West Farms - Torres, Ritchie105002candidateCD 15 Candidate
CD 15 Candidate: Bronx; West Farms - Rivera, Joel R39277candidateCD 15 Candidate
CD 15 Candidate: Bronx; West Farms - Batista, Raquel E36917candidateCD 15 Candidate
CD 15 Candidate: Bronx; West Farms - Rivera, William35300candidateCD 15 Candidate
CD 15 Candidate: Bronx; West Farms - Bauza, Joel M28686candidateCD 15 Candidate
CD 15 Candidate: Bronx; West Farms - Alvarez, Albert28432candidateCD 15 Candidate
CD 15 Candidate: Bronx; West Farms - Tapia, Yudelka22760candidateCD 15 Candidate
CD 15 Candidate: Bronx; West Farms - Thompkins, Cynthia11471candidateCD 15 Candidate
CD 15 Candidate: Bronx; West Farms - Agosto, Kenneth G520candidateCD 15 Candidate
probability: 0.340512055519





Predicted Winner
CD 16 Candidate: Bronx; West Bronx, Morrisania, South Bronx, Highbridge, Melrose - Gibson, Vanessa L84901candidateCD 16 Candidate
CD 16 Candidate: Bronx; West Bronx, Morrisania, South Bronx, Highbridge, Melrose - Muhammed, Naaimat37351candidateCD 16 Candidate
CD 16 Candidate: Bronx; West Bronx, Morrisania, South Bronx, Highbridge, Melrose - Alvarez, Pedro36545candidateCD 16 Candidate
CD 16 Candidate: Bronx; West Bronx, Morrisania, South Bronx, Highbridge, Melrose - Sierra, Carlos M32086candidateCD 16 Candidate
CD 16 Candidate: Bronx; West Bronx, Morrisania, South Bronx, Highbridge, Melrose - Omotosho, Bola21656candidateCD 16 Candidate
CD 16 Candidate: Bronx; West Bronx, Morrisania, South Bronx, Highbridge, Melrose - Berkley, Carlton12430candidateCD 16 Candidate
CD 16 Candidate: Bronx; West Bronx, Morrisania, South Bronx, Highbridge, Melrose - Johnson, Daryl L6757candidateCD 16 Candidate
CD 16 Candidate: Bronx; West Bronx, Morrisania, South Bronx, Highbridge, Melrose - Bello, Abiodun W6285candidateCD 16 Candidate
CD 16 Candidate: Bronx; West Bronx, Morrisania, South Bronx, Highbridge, Melrose - Newsome, Walter L5792candidateCD 16 Candidate
CD 16 Candidate: Bronx; West Bronx, Morrisania, South Bronx, Highbridge, Melrose - Diallo, Ahmadou T5200candidateCD 16 Candidate
probability: 0.340963763489





Predicted Winner
CD 17 Candidate: Bronx; Mott Haven - Arroyo, Maria90926candidateCD 17 Candidate
CD 17 Candidate: Bronx; Mott Haven - Pabon, Julio26282candidateCD 17 Candidate
CD 17 Candidate: Bronx; Mott Haven - Velez, Jose194candidateCD 17 Candidate
probability: 0.774484250694





Predicted Winner
CD 18 Candidate: Bronx; Parkchester, Soundview, Castle Hill, Classon Point, Harding Park - Palma, Annabel53836candidateCD 18 Candidate
CD 18 Candidate: Bronx; Parkchester, Soundview, Castle Hill, Classon Point, Harding Park - Nestler, Walter G7012candidateCD 18 Candidate
CD 18 Candidate: Bronx; Parkchester, Soundview, Castle Hill, Classon Point, Harding Park - Moore, William R6721candidateCD 18 Candidate
probability: 0.796755908775





Predicted Winner
CD 19 Candidate: Queens; Bayside, College Point, Auburndale, Beechhurst, Whitestone, Bay Terrace, Flushing, Douglaston, Little Neck - Shafran, Austin I102047candidateCD 19 Candidate
CD 19 Candidate: Queens; Bayside, College Point, Auburndale, Beechhurst, Whitestone, Bay Terrace, Flushing, Douglaston, Little Neck - Vallone, Paul A84745candidateCD 19 Candidate
CD 19 Candidate: Queens; Bayside, College Point, Auburndale, Beechhurst, Whitestone, Bay Terrace, Flushing, Douglaston, Little Neck - Duane, John F82195candidateCD 19 Candidate
CD 19 Candidate: Queens; Bayside, College Point, Auburndale, Beechhurst, Whitestone, Bay Terrace, Flushing, Douglaston, Little Neck - Saffran, Dennis J60826candidateCD 19 Candidate
CD 19 Candidate: Queens; Bayside, College Point, Auburndale, Beechhurst, Whitestone, Bay Terrace, Flushing, Douglaston, Little Neck - Halloran, Daniel J40790candidateCD 19 Candidate
CD 19 Candidate: Queens; Bayside, College Point, Auburndale, Beechhurst, Whitestone, Bay Terrace, Flushing, Douglaston, Little Neck - Graziano, Paul D23833candidateCD 19 Candidate
CD 19 Candidate: Queens; Bayside, College Point, Auburndale, Beechhurst, Whitestone, Bay Terrace, Flushing, Douglaston, Little Neck - Voskerichian, Chrissy22633candidateCD 19 Candidate
CD 19 Candidate: Queens; Bayside, College Point, Auburndale, Beechhurst, Whitestone, Bay Terrace, Flushing, Douglaston, Little Neck - Silverstein, Matthew R9357candidateCD 19 Candidate
CD 19 Candidate: Queens; Bayside, College Point, Auburndale, Beechhurst, Whitestone, Bay Terrace, Flushing, Douglaston, Little Neck - Yeh, Hank C300candidateCD 19 Candidate
probability: 0.239139400927





Predicted Winner
CD 20 Candidate: Queens; Flushing, Queensboro Hill, Mitchell Gardens, Kissena Park, Harding Heights, Auburndale, Whitestone - Koo, Peter A373823candidateCD 20 Candidate
CD 20 Candidate: Queens; Flushing, Queensboro Hill, Mitchell Gardens, Kissena Park, Harding Heights, Auburndale, Whitestone - Hahn, Sunny4170candidateCD 20 Candidate
CD 20 Candidate: Queens; Flushing, Queensboro Hill, Mitchell Gardens, Kissena Park, Harding Heights, Auburndale, Whitestone - Chou, Evergreen C200candidateCD 20 Candidate
probability: 0.988445053187





Predicted Winner
CD 21 Candidate: Queens; Elmhurst, East Elmhurst, Corona and Jackson Heights. - Ferreras, Julissa64284candidateCD 21 Candidate
probability: 1.0





Predicted Winner
CD 22 Candidate: Queens; Astoria, Long Island City, parts of Jackson Heights, Rikers Island, Randall's Island and Wards Island - Constantinides, Costa G134681candidateCD 22 Candidate
CD 22 Candidate: Queens; Astoria, Long Island City, parts of Jackson Heights, Rikers Island, Randall's Island and Wards Island - Prentzas, Constantinos53300candidateCD 22 Candidate
CD 22 Candidate: Queens; Astoria, Long Island City, parts of Jackson Heights, Rikers Island, Randall's Island and Wards Island - Meloni, Antonio M44037candidateCD 22 Candidate
CD 22 Candidate: Queens; Astoria, Long Island City, parts of Jackson Heights, Rikers Island, Randall's Island and Wards Island - Serpe, Lynne9563candidateCD 22 Candidate
CD 22 Candidate: Queens; Astoria, Long Island City, parts of Jackson Heights, Rikers Island, Randall's Island and Wards Island - De Stefano, Danielle M7021candidateCD 22 Candidate
CD 22 Candidate: Queens; Astoria, Long Island City, parts of Jackson Heights, Rikers Island, Randall's Island and Wards Island - Peterson, Daniel P4666candidateCD 22 Candidate
CD 22 Candidate: Queens; Astoria, Long Island City, parts of Jackson Heights, Rikers Island, Randall's Island and Wards Island - Kann, Gerald F380candidateCD 22 Candidate
probability: 0.530975998234





Predicted Winner
CD 23 Candidate: Queens; Hollis Hills, Queens Village, Little Neck, Douglaston, Bayside, Bellerose, Floral Park, Glen Oaks, Hollis, Hollis Park Gardens, Holliswood, Fresh Meadows, Oakland Gardens - Weprin, Mark S229016candidateCD 23 Candidate
probability: 1.0





Predicted Winner
CD 24 Candidate: Queens; Briarwood, Fresh Meadows, Hillcrest, Hillcrest Estates, Jamaica Estates, Jamaica Hills, Kew Gardens Hills, Utopia Estates, and parts of Forest Hills, Flushing, Jamaica and Rego Park - Lancman, Rory I122341candidateCD 24 Candidate
CD 24 Candidate: Queens; Briarwood, Fresh Meadows, Hillcrest, Hillcrest Estates, Jamaica Estates, Jamaica Hills, Kew Gardens Hills, Utopia Estates, and parts of Forest Hills, Flushing, Jamaica and Rego Park - Simanowitz, Michael68950candidateCD 24 Candidate
CD 24 Candidate: Queens; Briarwood, Fresh Meadows, Hillcrest, Hillcrest Estates, Jamaica Estates, Jamaica Hills, Kew Gardens Hills, Utopia Estates, and parts of Forest Hills, Flushing, Jamaica and Rego Park - Rahman, Mujib U18191candidateCD 24 Candidate
CD 24 Candidate: Queens; Briarwood, Fresh Meadows, Hillcrest, Hillcrest Estates, Jamaica Estates, Jamaica Hills, Kew Gardens Hills, Utopia Estates, and parts of Forest Hills, Flushing, Jamaica and Rego Park - Blishteyn, Alexander18139candidateCD 24 Candidate
CD 24 Candidate: Queens; Briarwood, Fresh Meadows, Hillcrest, Hillcrest Estates, Jamaica Estates, Jamaica Hills, Kew Gardens Hills, Utopia Estates, and parts of Forest Hills, Flushing, Jamaica and Rego Park - Veras, Andrea M11446candidateCD 24 Candidate
CD 24 Candidate: Queens; Briarwood, Fresh Meadows, Hillcrest, Hillcrest Estates, Jamaica Estates, Jamaica Hills, Kew Gardens Hills, Utopia Estates, and parts of Forest Hills, Flushing, Jamaica and Rego Park - Sasson, Isaac M281candidateCD 24 Candidate
probability: 0.511142771195





Predicted Winner
CD 25 Candidate: Queens; Jackson Heights, Elmhurst, East Elmhurst, LeFrak City, Corona, Rego Park, and Woodside - Dromm, Daniel P120355candidateCD 25 Candidate
probability: 1.0





Predicted Winner
CD 26 Candidate: Queens; Woodside, Sunnyside, Long Island City, Astoria, and Maspeth - Van Bramer, James G146305candidateCD 26 Candidate
probability: 1.0





Predicted Winner
CD 27 Candidate: Queens; St. Albans, Hollis, Cambria Heights, Jamaica, Baisley Park, Addisleigh Park; parts of Queens Village, Rosedale, Springfield Gardens - Miller, I. Daneek88262candidateCD 27 Candidate
CD 27 Candidate: Queens; St. Albans, Hollis, Cambria Heights, Jamaica, Baisley Park, Addisleigh Park; parts of Queens Village, Rosedale, Springfield Gardens - Caughman, Manuel38822candidateCD 27 Candidate
CD 27 Candidate: Queens; St. Albans, Hollis, Cambria Heights, Jamaica, Baisley Park, Addisleigh Park; parts of Queens Village, Rosedale, Springfield Gardens - Flowers, Joan E26417candidateCD 27 Candidate
CD 27 Candidate: Queens; St. Albans, Hollis, Cambria Heights, Jamaica, Baisley Park, Addisleigh Park; parts of Queens Village, Rosedale, Springfield Gardens - Mays, Gregory15548candidateCD 27 Candidate
CD 27 Candidate: Queens; St. Albans, Hollis, Cambria Heights, Jamaica, Baisley Park, Addisleigh Park; parts of Queens Village, Rosedale, Springfield Gardens - Vanel, Clyde10325candidateCD 27 Candidate
CD 27 Candidate: Queens; St. Albans, Hollis, Cambria Heights, Jamaica, Baisley Park, Addisleigh Park; parts of Queens Village, Rosedale, Springfield Gardens - Peeden, Sondra H7107candidateCD 27 Candidate
probability: 0.473302910216





Predicted Winner
CD 28 Candidate: Queens - Powell, Hettie V47819candidateCD 28 Candidate
CD 28 Candidate: Queens - Wills, Ruben W40815candidateCD 28 Candidate
CD 28 Candidate: Queens - Kayode, David B11666candidateCD 28 Candidate
CD 28 Candidate: Queens - Winslow, Christina2644candidateCD 28 Candidate
CD 28 Candidate: Queens - Marthone, Joseph R2642candidateCD 28 Candidate
CD 28 Candidate: Queens - Payne, Breina250candidateCD 28 Candidate
probability: 0.451821686383





Predicted Winner
CD 29 Candidate: Queens - Koslowitz, Karen79239candidateCD 29 Candidate
CD 29 Candidate: Queens - Torodash, Jon1890candidateCD 29 Candidate
probability: 0.976703768073





Predicted Winner
CD 30 Candidate: Queens; Glendale, Ozone Park, Woodhaven, Middle Village, Maspeth, Richmond Hill - Crowley, Elizabeth S148313candidateCD 30 Candidate
CD 30 Candidate: Queens; Glendale, Ozone Park, Woodhaven, Middle Village, Maspeth, Richmond Hill - Caruana, Craig N31317candidateCD 30 Candidate
probability: 0.825658297612





Predicted Winner
CD 31 Candidate: Queens - Richards, Donovan J40028candidateCD 31 Candidate
CD 31 Candidate: Queens - Duncan, Michael R13700candidateCD 31 Candidate
CD 31 Candidate: Queens - Brown, Ricardo A11528candidateCD 31 Candidate
CD 31 Candidate: Queens - Hooks, Jr., David R1360candidateCD 31 Candidate
CD 31 Candidate: Queens - Murray, Scherie S807candidateCD 31 Candidate
probability: 0.593684647672





Predicted Winner
CD 32 Candidate: Queens; Belle Harbor, Breezy Point, Broad Channel, Hamilton Beach, Howard Beach, Lindenwood, Neponsit, Ozone Park, Rockaway Beach, Rockaway Park, South Ozone Park, South Richmond Hill and Woodhaven - Ulrich, Eric A32910candidateCD 32 Candidate
CD 32 Candidate: Queens; Belle Harbor, Breezy Point, Broad Channel, Hamilton Beach, Howard Beach, Lindenwood, Neponsit, Ozone Park, Rockaway Beach, Rockaway Park, South Ozone Park, South Richmond Hill and Woodhaven - Simon, Lew M26561candidateCD 32 Candidate
CD 32 Candidate: Queens; Belle Harbor, Breezy Point, Broad Channel, Hamilton Beach, Howard Beach, Lindenwood, Neponsit, Ozone Park, Rockaway Beach, Rockaway Park, South Ozone Park, South Richmond Hill and Woodhaven - Ruiz, William6789candidateCD 32 Candidate
probability: 0.496679746453





Predicted Winner
CD 33 Candidate: Brooklyn; Brooklyn Heights, Greenpoint; parts of Williamsburg, Park Slope, Boerum Hill - Levin, Stephen T110904candidateCD 33 Candidate
CD 33 Candidate: Brooklyn; Brooklyn Heights, Greenpoint; parts of Williamsburg, Park Slope, Boerum Hill - Pierson, Stephen E52936candidateCD 33 Candidate
probability: 0.676904296875





Predicted Winner
CD 34 Candidate: Brooklyn; East Williamsburg and Bushwick. - Reynoso, Antonio100686candidateCD 34 Candidate
CD 34 Candidate: Brooklyn; East Williamsburg and Bushwick. - Lopez, Vito J66410candidateCD 34 Candidate
CD 34 Candidate: Brooklyn; East Williamsburg and Bushwick. - Torres, Thomas34911candidateCD 34 Candidate
CD 34 Candidate: Brooklyn; East Williamsburg and Bushwick. - Soto, Humberto7125candidateCD 34 Candidate
CD 34 Candidate: Brooklyn; East Williamsburg and Bushwick. - Santiago, Gladys2100candidateCD 34 Candidate
probability: 0.476660733222





Predicted Winner
CD 35 Candidate: Brooklyn; Clinton Hill, Fort Greene; parts of Crown Heights, Prospect Heights, Bedford-Stuyvesant. - Cumbo, Laurie A103836candidateCD 35 Candidate
CD 35 Candidate: Brooklyn; Clinton Hill, Fort Greene; parts of Crown Heights, Prospect Heights, Bedford-Stuyvesant. - Fox, Ede S87787candidateCD 35 Candidate
CD 35 Candidate: Brooklyn; Clinton Hill, Fort Greene; parts of Crown Heights, Prospect Heights, Bedford-Stuyvesant. - Alabi, Olanike T44219candidateCD 35 Candidate
CD 35 Candidate: Brooklyn; Clinton Hill, Fort Greene; parts of Crown Heights, Prospect Heights, Bedford-Stuyvesant. - Mashariki, Jelani36235candidateCD 35 Candidate
CD 35 Candidate: Brooklyn; Clinton Hill, Fort Greene; parts of Crown Heights, Prospect Heights, Bedford-Stuyvesant. - Hamilton, Jesse E16125candidateCD 35 Candidate
CD 35 Candidate: Brooklyn; Clinton Hill, Fort Greene; parts of Crown Heights, Prospect Heights, Bedford-Stuyvesant. - Hurley, Frank R8080candidateCD 35 Candidate
probability: 0.35046340986





Predicted Winner
CD 36 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Crown Heights and Bedford-Stuyvesant. - Foy, Kirsten J65324candidateCD 36 Candidate
CD 36 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Crown Heights and Bedford-Stuyvesant. - Cornegy, Jr., Robert E54830candidateCD 36 Candidate
CD 36 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Crown Heights and Bedford-Stuyvesant. - Waterman, Robert M44576candidateCD 36 Candidate
CD 36 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Crown Heights and Bedford-Stuyvesant. - Tillard, Conrad22306candidateCD 36 Candidate
CD 36 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Crown Heights and Bedford-Stuyvesant. - Swiney, Reginald1075candidateCD 36 Candidate
CD 36 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Crown Heights and Bedford-Stuyvesant. - Taylor, Akiel B1045candidateCD 36 Candidate
probability: 0.345344583307





Predicted Winner
CD 37 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bushwick, Cypress Hills, East New York, Ocean Hill, and Brownsville. - Espinal, Jr., Rafael L64807candidateCD 37 Candidate
CD 37 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bushwick, Cypress Hills, East New York, Ocean Hill, and Brownsville. - Council, Kimberly N60785candidateCD 37 Candidate
CD 37 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bushwick, Cypress Hills, East New York, Ocean Hill, and Brownsville. - Sheikh, Helal A23007candidateCD 37 Candidate
CD 37 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bushwick, Cypress Hills, East New York, Ocean Hill, and Brownsville. - Nieves, Michael D19185candidateCD 37 Candidate
CD 37 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bushwick, Cypress Hills, East New York, Ocean Hill, and Brownsville. - Mateo, Heriberto16750candidateCD 37 Candidate
probability: 0.35119273413





Predicted Winner
CD 38 Candidate: Brooklyn; Sunset Park, Boerum Hill, Red Hook, Windsor Terrace. - Gonzalez, Sara M113771candidateCD 38 Candidate
CD 38 Candidate: Brooklyn; Sunset Park, Boerum Hill, Red Hook, Windsor Terrace. - Menchaca, Carlos82620candidateCD 38 Candidate
probability: 0.579308624122





Predicted Winner
CD 39 Candidate: Brooklyn; Park Slope, Cobble Hill, Carroll Gardens, Windsor Terrace, Kensington, and Borough Park. - Lander, Brad S131001candidateCD 39 Candidate
probability: 1.0





Predicted Winner
CD 40 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Crown Heights and Flatbush. - Eugene, Mathieu71129candidateCD 40 Candidate
CD 40 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Crown Heights and Flatbush. - Thomas, Saundra P58534candidateCD 40 Candidate
CD 40 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Crown Heights and Flatbush. - Kinard, Sylvia G6152candidateCD 40 Candidate
CD 40 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Crown Heights and Flatbush. - Grant, John E5720candidateCD 40 Candidate
probability: 0.502554138552





Predicted Winner
CD 41 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bedford-Stuyvesant, Ocean Hill, and East Flatbush - Mealy, Darlene27251candidateCD 41 Candidate
CD 41 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bedford-Stuyvesant, Ocean Hill, and East Flatbush - Daniel, Kathleen23910candidateCD 41 Candidate
CD 41 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bedford-Stuyvesant, Ocean Hill, and East Flatbush - Wright, Byron J6860candidateCD 41 Candidate
CD 41 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bedford-Stuyvesant, Ocean Hill, and East Flatbush - Jackson, Al1400candidateCD 41 Candidate
probability: 0.458608909308





Predicted Winner
CD 42 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of East New York, Brownsville, Canarsie and East Flatbush. - Banks, Christopher W56606candidateCD 42 Candidate
CD 42 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of East New York, Brownsville, Canarsie and East Flatbush. - Barron, Inez D32709candidateCD 42 Candidate
CD 42 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of East New York, Brownsville, Canarsie and East Flatbush. - Henry, Sean K22234candidateCD 42 Candidate
CD 42 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of East New York, Brownsville, Canarsie and East Flatbush. - Whitehead, John C19509candidateCD 42 Candidate
CD 42 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of East New York, Brownsville, Canarsie and East Flatbush. - Lucas, Nikki I8349candidateCD 42 Candidate
CD 42 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of East New York, Brownsville, Canarsie and East Flatbush. - Powell, Regina5335candidateCD 42 Candidate
probability: 0.391082063257





Predicted Winner
CD 43 Candidate: Brooklyn; Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights and Bensonhurst. - Gentile, Vincent J142391candidateCD 43 Candidate
CD 43 Candidate: Brooklyn; Bay Ridge, Dyker Heights and Bensonhurst. - Quaglione, John F47048candidateCD 43 Candidate
probability: 0.751645648467





Predicted Winner
CD 44 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bensonhurst, Borough Park, and Midwood - Greenfield, David G115255candidateCD 44 Candidate
CD 44 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bensonhurst, Borough Park, and Midwood - Hayon, Joseph8070candidateCD 44 Candidate
CD 44 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bensonhurst, Borough Park, and Midwood - Flusberg, Jacob M1681candidateCD 44 Candidate
probability: 0.921995744204





Predicted Winner
CD 45 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Crown Heights Canarsie and East Flatbush. - Williams, Jumaane D88210candidateCD 45 Candidate
CD 45 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Crown Heights Canarsie and East Flatbush. - Similien, Jean H15119candidateCD 45 Candidate
CD 45 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Crown Heights Canarsie and East Flatbush. - Williams, Godwin10595candidateCD 45 Candidate
CD 45 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Crown Heights Canarsie and East Flatbush. - King, Erlene J8470candidateCD 45 Candidate
probability: 0.72070526333





Predicted Winner
CD 46 Candidate: Brooklyn; Bergen Beach, Canarsie, Georgetown, Flatlands, Marine Park, Mill Basin, Mill Island, Gerritsen Beach, Madison and Sheepshead Bay - Narcisse, Mercedes85320candidateCD 46 Candidate
CD 46 Candidate: Brooklyn; Bergen Beach, Canarsie, Georgetown, Flatlands, Marine Park, Mill Basin, Mill Island, Gerritsen Beach, Madison and Sheepshead Bay - Maisel, Alan81301candidateCD 46 Candidate
CD 46 Candidate: Brooklyn; Bergen Beach, Canarsie, Georgetown, Flatlands, Marine Park, Mill Basin, Mill Island, Gerritsen Beach, Madison and Sheepshead Bay - Seddio, Frank R55669candidateCD 46 Candidate
CD 46 Candidate: Brooklyn; Bergen Beach, Canarsie, Georgetown, Flatlands, Marine Park, Mill Basin, Mill Island, Gerritsen Beach, Madison and Sheepshead Bay - Testaverde, Anthony6945candidateCD 46 Candidate
probability: 0.372194472921





Predicted Winner
CD 47 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bensonhurst, Gravesend, Coney Island and Brighton Beach - Lisyanskiy, John131862candidateCD 47 Candidate
CD 47 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bensonhurst, Gravesend, Coney Island and Brighton Beach - Dobrin, Todd A84450candidateCD 47 Candidate
CD 47 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bensonhurst, Gravesend, Coney Island and Brighton Beach - Treyger, Mark76328candidateCD 47 Candidate
CD 47 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bensonhurst, Gravesend, Coney Island and Brighton Beach - Gotlieb, Brian L28686candidateCD 47 Candidate
CD 47 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bensonhurst, Gravesend, Coney Island and Brighton Beach - Treybich, Michael21462candidateCD 47 Candidate
CD 47 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bensonhurst, Gravesend, Coney Island and Brighton Beach - Sullivan, Andrew J14940candidateCD 47 Candidate
CD 47 Candidate: Brooklyn; parts of Bensonhurst, Gravesend, Coney Island and Brighton Beach - Mobley, Connis M3390candidateCD 47 Candidate
probability: 0.365149341766





Predicted Winner
CD 48 Candidate: Brooklyn; Midwood, Sheepshead Bay, Homecrest, and Brighton Beach - Oberman, Igor112068candidateCD 48 Candidate
CD 48 Candidate: Brooklyn; Midwood, Sheepshead Bay, Homecrest, and Brighton Beach - Kagan, Ari84510candidateCD 48 Candidate
CD 48 Candidate: Brooklyn; Midwood, Sheepshead Bay, Homecrest, and Brighton Beach - Deutsch, Chaim M78323candidateCD 48 Candidate
CD 48 Candidate: Brooklyn; Midwood, Sheepshead Bay, Homecrest, and Brighton Beach - Scavo, Theresa R65954candidateCD 48 Candidate
CD 48 Candidate: Brooklyn; Midwood, Sheepshead Bay, Homecrest, and Brighton Beach - Storobin, David45731candidateCD 48 Candidate
CD 48 Candidate: Brooklyn; Midwood, Sheepshead Bay, Homecrest, and Brighton Beach - Bhushan, Natraj S5234candidateCD 48 Candidate
probability: 0.286019090399





Predicted Winner
CD 49 Candidate: Staten Island - Rose, Deborah67596candidateCD 49 Candidate
CD 49 Candidate: Staten Island - Macron, Mark A34735candidateCD 49 Candidate
probability: 0.660562292951





Predicted Winner
CD 50 Candidate: Staten Island: Arrochar, Bulls Head, Concord, Dongan Hills, Emerson Hill, Fort Wadsworth, Grant City, Graniteville, Grasmere, Island of Meadows, Midland Beach, New Dorp, Prall's Island, Richmondtown, South Beach, Todt Hill, Travis, Westerleigh, Willowbrook; parts of Brooklyn in: Dyker Heights, Bath Beach and Bensonhurst [9] - Matteo, Steven117793candidateCD 50 Candidate
CD 50 Candidate: Staten Island: Arrochar, Bulls Head, Concord, Dongan Hills, Emerson Hill, Fort Wadsworth, Grant City, Graniteville, Grasmere, Island of Meadows, Midland Beach, New Dorp, Prall's Island, Richmondtown, South Beach, Todt Hill, Travis, Westerleigh, Willowbrook; parts of Brooklyn in: Dyker Heights, Bath Beach and Bensonhurst [9] - Giovinazzo, Lisa E64480candidateCD 50 Candidate
CD 50 Candidate: Staten Island: Arrochar, Bulls Head, Concord, Dongan Hills, Emerson Hill, Fort Wadsworth, Grant City, Graniteville, Grasmere, Island of Meadows, Midland Beach, New Dorp, Prall's Island, Richmondtown, South Beach, Todt Hill, Travis, Westerleigh, Willowbrook; parts of Brooklyn in: Dyker Heights, Bath Beach and Bensonhurst [9] - Mirocznik, Mendy36403candidateCD 50 Candidate
CD 50 Candidate: Staten Island: Arrochar, Bulls Head, Concord, Dongan Hills, Emerson Hill, Fort Wadsworth, Grant City, Graniteville, Grasmere, Island of Meadows, Midland Beach, New Dorp, Prall's Island, Richmondtown, South Beach, Todt Hill, Travis, Westerleigh, Willowbrook; parts of Brooklyn in: Dyker Heights, Bath Beach and Bensonhurst [9] - Mancuso, John17755candidateCD 50 Candidate
probability: 0.498213009292





Predicted Winner
CD 51 Candidate: Staten Island: Arden Heights, Annadale, Bay Terrace, Tottenville, Oakwood, Great Kills, Richmondtown, Charleston, Rossville, New Springville, Eltingville, Woodrow, Richmond Valley, Huguenot, Prince's Bay, and Pleasant Plains[10] - Ignizio, Vincent M59243candidateCD 51 Candidate
CD 51 Candidate: Staten Island: Arden Heights, Annadale, Bay Terrace, Tottenville, Oakwood, Great Kills, Richmondtown, Charleston, Rossville, New Springville, Eltingville, Woodrow, Richmond Valley, Huguenot, Prince's Bay, and Pleasant Plains[10] - Walsh, Christopher13945candidateCD 51 Candidate
probability: 0.809463299995





Predicted Winner
Comptroller Candidate: #N/A - Spitzer, Eliot L8206076candidateComptroller Candidate
Comptroller Candidate: #N/A - Stringer, Scott M3333602candidateComptroller Candidate
Comptroller Candidate: #N/A - Burnett, John L15400candidateComptroller Candidate
Comptroller Candidate: #N/A - Davis, Kristin M391candidateComptroller Candidate
probability: 0.710146511578





Predicted Winner
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Quinn, Christine C7822260candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Weiner, Anthony D5694896candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Thompson, Jr., William C4519903candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - de Blasio, Bill4455338candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Liu, John C3484127candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Lhota, Joseph J2047186candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Hidary, Jack D454640candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Allon, Tom F299519candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Salgado, Erick J278139candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - McDonald, George T182709candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Albanese, Sal F180312candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Carrion, Jr., Adolfo124796candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Catsimatidis, John A29616candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Lee, He G25036candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Credico, Randy24941candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Person, Carl E17376candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Finnegan, Kevin A6475candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Laurel-Smith, Abiodun3980candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Melaragno, Joseph G1745candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Broady-Fernandez, Hilda K1535candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Marks, Philip A500candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Coenen, Jr., Kevin P175candidateMayor Candidate
Mayor Candidate: #N/A - Berkowitz, Ceceilia J120candidateMayor Candidate
probability: 0.263772535414





Predicted Winner
Public Advocate Candidate: #N/A - Squadron, Daniel L1570953candidatePublic Advocate Candidate
Public Advocate Candidate: #N/A - Saujani, Reshma M1475878candidatePublic Advocate Candidate
Public Advocate Candidate: #N/A - James, Letitia762260candidatePublic Advocate Candidate
Public Advocate Candidate: #N/A - Guerriero, Catherine247963candidatePublic Advocate Candidate
Public Advocate Candidate: #N/A - Wai, Sidique A41629candidatePublic Advocate Candidate
probability: 0.383282386074





Predicted Winner
Undeclared Candidate: #N/A - Recchia, Domenic M477800candidateUndeclared Candidate
Undeclared Candidate: #N/A - Rivera, Joel208261candidateUndeclared Candidate
Undeclared Candidate: #N/A - Quiroz, Alfonso67476candidateUndeclared Candidate
Undeclared Candidate: #N/A - Taylor, Martha52560candidateUndeclared Candidate
Undeclared Candidate: #N/A - Griffith, Mark W10950candidateUndeclared Candidate
Undeclared Candidate: #N/A - Ortega, Corey10610candidateUndeclared Candidate
Undeclared Candidate: #N/A - Edwards, Khari10255candidateUndeclared Candidate
Undeclared Candidate: #N/A - Gonzalez, Jesus9284candidateUndeclared Candidate
Undeclared Candidate: #N/A - Elshiekh, Moustafa M7345candidateUndeclared Candidate
Undeclared Candidate: #N/A - Krongold, Martin S5030candidateUndeclared Candidate
Undeclared Candidate: #N/A - Krishnan, Hill2965candidateUndeclared Candidate
Undeclared Candidate: #N/A - Joseph, Rhonda F391candidateUndeclared Candidate
Undeclared Candidate: #N/A - De Los Santos, Felipe N100candidateUndeclared Candidate
probability: 0.553632736867





Predicted Winner
Jobs for New York, Inc.6845000candidateetc
United for the Future3000000candidateetc
HOTEL WORKERS FOR A STRONGER MIDDLE CLASS1520000candidateetc
NYCN4S1509000candidateetc
Restaurant Action Alliance824500candidateetc
Progress NYC550000candidateetc
NYC CLC Political Action Campaign Fund360000candidateetc
Unidos para Communidades Trabajadoras210000candidateetc
City Action Coalition PAC175500candidateetc
People for a Better New York130799candidateetc
Fighting for our Future PAC125800candidateetc
Small Business Coalition, Inc.121796candidateetc
DC37 Political Action Committee47850candidateetc
Lex Dems 201321444candidateetc
Make The Road Political Action16250candidateetc
Uemsou11058candidateetc
Progressive Brooklyn Political Action Committee2592candidateetc