Friday, September 13, 2013

Results of predicting the 2013 New York City Primary by Money

The predictions based on candidate with the most contributions where 47% correct

That means that 53% of the time candidates with less in contributions actually won in this particular election.

For example, Quinn led in contributions but was not close in the election results.

Here's the matches:  There are still a few unresolved races that might bring the percentage up.  But it appears that money isn't everything :)

eric adams uncontested
Annabel Palma Annabel Palma,  # 2
Antonio Reynoso Antonio Reynoso,  # 2
Darlene Mealy Darlene Mealy,  # 2
Fernando Cabrera Fernando Cabrera,  # 2
Mathieu Eugene Mathieu Eugene,  # 2
Melissa Mark-Viverito Melissa Mark-Viverito,  # 2
Ritchie Torres Ritchie Torres,  # 2
Rosie Mendez Rosie Mendez,  # 2
Steven Matteo Steven Matteo,  # 2
Andrew Cohen Andrew J Cohen,  # 4
Corey Johnson Corey D Johnson,  # 4
Costa Constantinides Costa G Constantinides,  # 4
David Greenfield David G Greenfield,  # 4
Donovan Richards Donovan J Richards,  # 4
Helen Rosenthal Helen K Rosenthal,  # 4
Inez Dickens Inez E Dickens,  # 4
Jumaane Williams Jumaane D Williams,  # 4
Laurie Cumbo Laurie A Cumbo,  # 4
Margaret Chin Margaret S Chin,  # 4
Rory Lancman Rory I Lancman,  # 4
Stephen Levin Stephen T Levin,  # 4
Vanessa Gibson Vanessa L Gibson,  # 4
Ydanis Rodriguez Ydanis A Rodriguez,  # 4
Ruben Diaz Ruben Diaz Jr.,  # 6
Andy King Andrew L King,  # 7
Rafael Espinal Rafael L Espinal, Jr.,  # 9

28/59
.47457627118644067796

Since the formats of names varies a lot we use an algorithm that matches names by their similarity.  The results are also shown above.